Methodology
JZ Analytics Poll of
Likely Voters in United States
8/11/12 thru 8/12/12
JZ Analytics conducted an Interactive Voice Response survey of likely voters, supplemented by an interactive survey of likely voters to achieve appropriate national representation of hard to reach voter subgroups.
JZ Analytics Poll of
Likely Voters in United States
8/11/12 thru 8/12/12
The sample is 1,117 interviews with 18 questions asked.
Interviews are primarily conducted through an IVR system that is hosted on a supplier's telephone center. Phones are automatically dialed and a voice recording then reads the survey questions and answers. The telephone keypad is used by those interviewed to enter a numeric response representing each answer. Samples are randomly drawn from purchased voter registration lists. Up to three calls are made to reach a sampled phone number.
In the supplementary online surveys, using trusted interactive partner resources thousands of adults were invited to participate. This secondary methodology is employed to better represent subgroups that are less likely to respond to conventional telephone surveys. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.
Using information based on census data, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, and religion.
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 1,117 is +/- 3.0 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.
Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.
